古之所谓善战者，胜于易胜者也。

Investment Interpretation

This principle emphasizes disciplined selectivity. Rather than spreading capital thin across uncertain opportunities, an investor should focus only on situations where the probability of success is high and the risk-reward profile is favorable. Victory is “assured” not through certainty, but through rigorous analysis, preparation, and alignment with core advantages.

Key insights:

• Not every opportunity deserves capital; restraint is as important as action.
• High-probability investments reduce the likelihood of losses and enhance long-term returns.
• Discipline in selection allows resources to be concentrated where your edge is strongest.

Investment Application

Million Leaf applies this principle through focused investment discipline and probability-based decision-making:

1. Rigorous Opportunity Screening
   • Apply strict criteria based on fundamentals, valuation, and competitive advantage.
   • Only proceed with investments that meet predefined thresholds for margin of safety and expected return.
2. Probability-Driven Decision Framework
   • Use quantitative and qualitative analysis to assess the likelihood of success.
   • Avoid positions with low expected probability of achieving target outcomes.
3. Concentration in High-Conviction Ideas
   • Allocate capital primarily to positions with the strongest strategic and analytical justification.
   • Avoid over-diversification that dilutes focus on high-probability opportunities.
4. Exit and Contingency Planning
   • Prepare clear exit strategies in advance to protect capital in case assumptions fail.
   • Ensure each investment has a defined risk-reward profile and downside limit.
5. Continuous Evaluation of Edge
   • Maintain awareness of changes in market dynamics, company fundamentals, and competitive positioning.
   • Adjust or exit positions where victory is no longer assured.

Summary

By investing only where victory is assured, Million Leaf maximizes the probability of favorable outcomes while preserving capital. This principle ensures that every deployment of capital is intentional, disciplined, and strategically advantageous.